Why it seems like the sky is falling for digital design

And how to come out of the storm stronger.

After a decade of prosperity, the design gold rush ends

For the past decade or so, digital design has enjoyed its golden moment. It was an era propelled by economic prosperity, a burgeoning startup scene, and an explosion in digitization, all underpinned by zero interest rates.

During this time, designers have been in high demand and often played a key role in setting new standards in convenience and usability, while reshaping customer expectations and experiences across industries.

These were also lucrative times. Good market conditions enabled the growth of new design job opportunities and design maturity improved a lot, especially in emerging markets.

Over time, more and more companies started to hire designers, UX became mainstream and having designers on board became commonplace.

Then, during the pandemic, everything turbo-charged even more. The demand for digital designers (and other tech workers) skyrocketed, leading to a surge of opportunities, often with higher salaries and attractive job packages.

Many switched jobs. UX was everywhere and we witnessed a huge influx of new people entering the industry, often with questionable credentials.

It seemed like the future was as bright as the sun and the only way the industry could go was up–until it didn’t.

A profound change is happening, but it’s not the end

The arrival of the global economic downturn and the burst of the (tech) pandemic bubble brought pain and sobering reflections for many. It has led to layoffs and falling valuations. Suddenly, people face uncertainty and compete for fewer job opportunities in a saturated market.

At work, extreme pressure on business impact weighs heavily as the economic prosperity that fueled the design boom is giving way to a more cautious and scrutinized environment. Many companies worldwide are re-evaluating the design’s role in business and the value of design is being questioned more than ever before.

On top of that, we are witnessing the rise of automation and AI which brings a mix of shock and awe. The speed of such evolution is hard to grasp and, naturally, people across industries (not only design) starting to wonder about their future relevancy.

When we put everything together, it’s clear that designers are now facing a critical period of adaptation that will define the industry’s next decade and beyond.

Given how young many in the industry are (especially in non-US/EU markets), this marks their first direct encounter with such a dramatic change — a naturally intimidating experience.

When we combine that with the wave of ‘doom-and-gloom’ articles online it’s no wonder why it can easily feel like it’s time to throw in the towel and lose hope.

Before we do that, though, I want to pause, reflect, and zoom out a little. It’s apparent that significant changes are happening to the industry and it would be unwise to ignore them, but I don’t believe that it’s the end–rather another chapter in a long journey.

Marching forward will be tough, though. There are several, new and harsh, realities that it’s good to be aware of as they impact everyone in the global design ecosystem, whether we like it or not. Let’s take a look at the main ones:

• The new market conditions require a pivot from a purely customer-centric approach to one that is more business-centric, where understanding and contributing to business models and product economics is as crucial as creativity and empathy.
• It’s now all about the impact, not the process. Blind love for the double diamond and an insistence on strict step-by-step processes just don’t work as reality is far messier and digital products today are rarely built in a linear, picture-perfect way. (Note: The same applies to self-presentations, portfolios or case studies. Nobody is really interested in case studies that are 80%+ about the process. Impact eats process for brunch.)
• Ideation is the cheapest it ever was (due to new AI tech) and only ‘design; concepts are nowadays not wowing anyone. It’s more and more necessary (and lucrative) to be a product builder, not only a ‘pixel-pusher’-whether individually or in a team.
• Some industries are rising, and some are falling. It’s unlikely that there will be a need for (digital) design (and thus designers) in every company. This means that there will be new frontiers and industries to explore as well as possibilities gone and lost.
• The average just doesn’t cut it anymore. Due to a massive saturation of the market, it now requires more dedication, uniqueness and professionalism to stand out. There are still many opportunities out there, but it just needs a lot more effort now to get them (or even have a chance of getting them).

Going beyond the traditional boundaries of the discipline looks inevitable

Navigating the current storm will require significant commitment towards reinvention well beyond design. Here are some of the key recommendations based on the latest insights, observations and practical experiences to help make better critical career decisions at this time.

• Being multi-disciplinary is huge. It brings tremendous benefits due to the rising value of adaptability in the new quickly evolving era. Adopting (at least basic) skills in coding, data analysis or computer science can open new previously unthinkable opportunities for designers. The good thing is that it’s never been easier to learn new skills due to widely available high-quality materials and tools such as ChatGPT. The bad news is that it will require a lot of resilience and self-dedication, too uncomfortable for many, hence why it’s likely that inequality will rise a lot.
• Business savviness and commercial sensibility are now non-negotiable. Learning how design work influences profits and getting knowledgeable about business models and product unit economics is a must. The era when being business-savvy was merely a competitive edge is over; now, it’s a fundamental requirement.
• There are industries beyond tech. There are new horizons, businesses and organizations to explore. Not everything needs to be (and should be) about tech jobs. Many industries on the rise could benefit from having designers. Examples could include sustainability, healthcare, education or even urban development.
• We could witness a new golden era of entrepreneurship. Focusing only on a full-time job might stop being the norm as AI is likely to enable individuals (and small teams) to achieve previously unseen levels of productivity. There is a real chance we can see a new golden era of entrepreneurship (or freelancing) as there are now more options than ever to launch a product, offer services online or diversify one’s income streams. There is already a movement with a new wave of designers starting companies with some worthy examples to follow.
• As the AI boom is upon us, it’s not a surprise that having a solid understanding and practical hands-on experiences with LLMs and Generative AI will lead to tremendous competitive (and lucrative) advantages for designers. Sequoia is calling the rise of AI “the single biggest value creation opportunity mankind has ever known.” But, likely, only the prepared ones will be able to reap its benefits.

Conclusion

I believe that the future of digital design is not a story of decline but one of evolution. An evolution that will require a lot more reinvention this time as simple and small changes are unlikely to lead us towards the opportunities we want, considering that we are facing the most challenging conditions (at least) for the past decade. To capitalize on the upcoming fortunes and shape the world anew, venturing out beyond the traditional boundaries of the discipline will be hard, but worth it.

sderfty